Episode 681: Marlins Madness, Sabermetric Milestones, and Other Emails
Date May 20, 2015 Summary Ben and Sam banter about the Marlins’ unorthodox managerial move, Play Index about doubles, and answer emails about innings counts, sabermetric milestones, and more. Topics * Most beneficial parts of sabermetric era * Value of preventing fan interference * Single season doubles record * Measuring pitcher workload * Baseball without extra innings Intro Sloan, "Losing California" Outro Phantom Planet, "California" Banter * This is the last episode Ben will record before leaving for Sonoma. He is excited about the weather. * Dan Jennings was appointed the Marlins' interim manager. Ben and Sam think this is technically a demotion for Jennings, but that in many other sports someone with his background would get a chance at the job. * Front office staff moving into the dugout Email Questions * Mike: "We have learned so much from this era of sabermetrics, but what has been the most beneficial towards increasing team wins/WAR? The emphasis on OBP over AVG feels like the banner insight so I'd like to make that ineligible. If you had to pick three nuggets of wisdom of the sabermetric era, which do you think have had the most impact on how teams are constructed and how games are played?" * Alex (Minnesota): "How much is a double turned into an out in a one score game worth? I ask because I've decided to take credit for one during the Twins/Rays game I went to on May 15th. I was sitting along the third base line in the second row and a sharp grounder got past Trevor Plouffe at third, so naturally a guy in front of me started reaching hard for the ball and I yelled 'Don't touch!' a few times to him. Luckily he heard me and alerted the guy next to him to not touch the live ball and Escobar grabbed the ball and gunned down James Loney at second for the second out of the inning. This event increased the win probability from 37.2% to 39.1%, but I'm guessing that's not including the notion that he could have just as easily been on second base instead of just a regular old out. So instead of calling a dead ball for interference and getting the guy who gave me the credit for keeping him from touching the ball kicked out of the stadium and a double to Loney, I played the hero and saved the play. So back to my original question, with the retail price of $45 for one and $169.50 for four with extra fees included for both, do the Twins owe me the price of my seat? How about the four people in my party?" * Joe: "One particular pet peeve that I have developed recently is the apparent use by teams of innings as a measure of a pitcher's workload. This seems to be lazy at best and ignorant at worst since innings are merely a measure of outs achieved by the pitcher and therefore just a somewhat accurate proxy. Given the rise of pitch counts though you'd think that teams could easily keep tabs on a pitcher's true workload including warm up efforts. Is there a reason that teams continue to discuss innings instead of pitches when address their pitcher's efforts?" * John: "Jason Wojciechowski just tweeted that he wished there were no such thing as extra innings. What if that were true? What if every game lasted exactly nine innings or was limited to a single extra inning or anything that isn't boundless like it currently is? If it's tied at the end it's a tie, and the standings are like they are in soccer. Three points for a win, one for a tie, none for a loss. How would strategies change? How different would the game be? Is this an interesting idea or a dumb one? Did mentioning Jason and ties so close together make you think that this was about players wearing ties?" Play Index * Adrian Gonzalez is on pace to hit 72 doubles, which would be a record. The current record is 67 by Earl Webb. * Sam is impressed that players are constantly on pace to break this record early in the year, but nobody has come close to the record. * Since 2002 there 19 hitters are who were on pace through 40 games to break the doubles record. * No player has hit at least 60 doubles in a single season since 1936. Notes * Ben inadvertently spoils part of the Mad Men series finale early on in the episode. * Ben, on leaving for Sonoma, "I feel like a frontiersman. I'm going out there, putting down stakes in Sonoma. Sending for my girlfriend a couple days later once I've planted my flag on a spot of ground out there." * Sam, on the upcoming Stompers' season, "I just want to sit here for a couple minutes, now that you've brought up the fact that the season is starting, and be paralyzed by fear." * Ben mentions the discussion he and Sam had in Episode 304 about hiring managers without playing experience. * Ben and Sam think that defense independent pitching statistics (DIPS) have had the greatest impact from the sabermetric era. Sam also thinks stat adjustment for park factors is significant. * Sam calculates that the play Alex refers to was worth 9% of a win, or $630,000. However he points out that Alex is not fully responsible, since the fan still had to listen to his advice. However Sam comments, "But Ben, he's pre-arb." and is therefore not owed anything. * Sam thinks that managers would use their pitchers more aggressively without the threat of extra innings and run scoring would continue to go down. * A very similar question about getting rid of extra innings was answered in Episode 343. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 681: Marlins Madness, Sabermetric Milestones, and Other Emails * Pitch 22 by Sam Miller * Pitcher Workloads and Innings Limits: Two Industry Perspectives by Ben Lindbergh Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes